Nifty Analysis 25th Oct to 29th Oct 2010

NIFTY - Followup of Last Week

Below 6060, 5950 was not achieved as markets retraced from 5987. I do not want to say that i predicted close but would like to make a point to all my friends. Targets are likely points that an analyst thinks are achievable but when your money is at stake you need to follow these levels as directions. Incase the advised turn was closed for any reason (the level did not achieve) you need to act accordingly and take the next turn that will lead you to your destination or ask a passerby for new instructions (go back to your analyst). While categorizing between a good or bad analysis we as traders need to learn that trading is an If else statement. If levels achieve then take your profits else go back to your analyst to get new action plan. 
 

NIFTY - Week ahead

Why am i not being bullish with the market moves is a million dollar question on my mind. So this week thought of finding answers for the same.
Reason1 : The rise of 900+ points from 5356 on 31st Aug to 6248 the first top needs to be consolidated and 20 days of resting is not enough for it to make its momentum move
Reason2 : 2 confirmed failed tops at 6248 & 6317 indicating good resistance at higher levels
Reason3 : Volatility is at a high and Momentum is falling signaling a change in trend
Finally this pattern is not the characteristic of a bullish market. So does it mean bear trend will start. NO, i am not trying to advocate the bearish theory either. Various concepts of analysis are indicating a fall which can be termed as a correction, a 5-10 day fall whatever term we use it points to a fact MANDI KHATAM NAHI HUI MERE DOST........ so lets tread these waters carefully       

VERDICT 
If You are a Bull : only and only above 6225 that to sustained trading above the same.
If You are a Bear : Confirmed shorts can be created below 5985 but aggressive shorts can be built with 6225 as SL
(Levels Mentioned are Nifty Current Month Futures)

NIFTY STOCKS TO WATCH

Reliance - We have exited the long positions at 1095. fresh longs above 1100 again

ONGC - 1335 achieved. Both side trading opportunities exist, we will create longs above 1385 and shorts below 1325

SBIN - Short positions created at 3205, remain short with sl of 3250 for a target of 3050

TCS - Spectacular bullish move with good volumes were witnessed. Since the stock was not on our radar we have no positions and do not advise building any at these levels

Infosys - No positions, look to create shorts in this up-move

NTPC - Similar to ONGC 203 - 209 are 2 levels where positions can be build

HindLever - Create fresh shorts below 290. The stock will face resistance on the upper side
(Levels Mentioned are Stock Current Month Futures)

TRADING SETUPS - HVR/NR4-IB

This setup finds stocks which are at historically low momentum and in the last few days are totally silent. These stocks present potential candidates for swing moves ahead
(Levels Mentioned are Cash market prices)

NSE SCRIPS	BUY ABV	SELL BLW

HERCULES HOI. LTD.	326	316
NESCO LTD.	600	574
V-GUARD IND LTD.	197	191
KALYANI STEELS LIMITED	131	127
JKUMAR INFR.LTD.	254	246
VIP INDUSTRIES LTD	645	620
KEC INTL. LIMITED	504	492
BASF INDIA LTD	700	680
CREST ANIMATION STUDIOS L	103.5	98
KOUTONS RETAIL (I) LTD	118	111
KAMAT HOTELS (I) LTD	141	135
BOMBAY DYEING MFG. CO L	625	612
ENTERTAIN NET. IND. LTD.	241	233
NATCO PHARMA LTD.	285	279
DCM SHRIRAM CONSOLIDATED	50	48
KPIT CUMMINS INFOSYSTEMS	166	160
SURYA PHARMACEUTICAL LTD.	276	271

TRADING SETUPS -Candlesticks

We use classic candle patterns which are formed by not a single days move but a combination of 8-10 days 
Bearish Reversal Pattern : A list of stocks which have been rising for the last 4-5 days and the stock has given a bearish reversal for eg. Engulfing Bear, Spinning Top, Long legged Doji etc.. 
(Levels Mentioned are Cash market prices)

NO SCRIPS TO REPORT

Bearish Reversal Pattern : A list of stocks which have been rising for the last 4-5 days and the stock has given a bearish reversal for eg. Engulfing Bear, Spinning Top, Long legged Doji etc.. 
(Levels Mentioned are Cash market prices)

Reversal from the Bottom	Remarks
Hyderbad Industries Ltd	Buy ard 560-70 with SL 550

Our Trades :  http://bit.ly/dwF0SS You are welcome to post your comments on each trade that i take based on the above newsletter and do not forget to rate me and follow my trades.

Happy Trading .........................

The quality of a person's life is in direct proportion to their commitment to excellence, regardless of their chosen field of endeavor... :)

Nifty Analysis 18th Oct to 22nd Oct 2010

NIFTY - Followup of Last Week
Breach of 6225 created longs in the market, But 6225 could not sustain beyond a day. This is not a good signal for Bulls. Though scrip  level action prevailed and we could make some money.
 

NIFTY - Week ahead

This week Nifty is going to be no different from last week. We have 2 confirmed failed tops in the range of 6250-6300 indicating clearly that Nifty needs time to rest. This oscillation also depicts the impatience of the Bulls to get out. And each attempt is being hammered severely. We expect the market to be range bound again this week between the levels of 5950 - 6250. the only concern this week is that after 8 days of resting Nifty tried to create a momentum which failed, this pattern cannot result in resting again, the volatility should increase thereby we should be extra careful in this week and be double sure of understanding a trend and then trading the same. In simple words what i am trying to explain is : The markets would touch both sides of the range and the actions n reactions will be very fast. So our assumption and actions have to be equally fast. In-spite of the visible candle reversal on the charts we should look to buy the nifty if it remains above 6150 and short it immediately if it remains below 5950 even for 15 mins. Lets play the stocks again this week. Which all seem to be bearish. YEH MANDI KAB AYGI !!!!! we are getting the first signals but apart from signals we need confirmations too. lets wait for them     

VERDICT 
If You are a Bull : Keep a SL of 5950 for all your longs. (better to exit incase you have created longs ard 6225)
If You are a Bear : High risk low profit shorts can be build below 6060 with target of 5950
(Levels Mentioned are Nifty Current Month Futures)

NIFTY STOCKS TO WATCH

Reliance - We are long in Reliance @ 1020 with revised SL of 1025 and target of 1100. The stock touched a high of 1085 and did not hit our target. Lets remain long

ONGC - We are short on ONGC with a revised SL of 1375 for a target of 1335. It touched a low of 1339. We can still remain short and wait for 1335

SBIN - We out of our longs and now shorts can be build at 3205 levels for a target of 3050. SL yet to far. will post the SL during the course of the week

TCS - The Infosys effect helped scrip breach 970 and touch 1017. If anyone is long above 970 and could not get out we suggest to exit at the first move back

Infosys -  A complete and perfect engulfing pattern which indicates a short term downward trend till 2900. Build shorts once infosys pull backs to 3125-50 only

NTPC - The downward fall has culminated and 203 will hold as short term support. 210 seems achievable in the short term on bounce back   

HindLever - Create fresh shorts below 290. The stock will face resistance on the upper side
(Levels Mentioned are Stock Current Month Futures)

TRADING SETUPS - HVR/NR4-IB

This setup finds stocks which are at historically low momentum and in the last few days are totally silent. These stocks present potential candidates for swing moves ahead
(Levels Mentioned are Cash market prices)

Scrip	High	Low
VINATI ORGANICS LTD	81.00	78.25
GLAXOSMITHKLINE PHARMA LT	2335.00	2260.00
RAIN COMM LTD	168.00	165.00
SHREE CEMENTS LTD	2048.00	2020.00
BANCO PRODUCTS (I) LTD	113.50	110.50
BHAGWATI BANQUETS HOTELS	173.00	168.50
GENESYS INTL CORPN LTD	296.00	281.00
HIMATSINGKA SEIDE LTD	47.00	45.00
CnC CONST. LTD.	262.00	257.00
LANCO INFRATECH LTD.	68.40	67.10
ARIES AGRO LTD.	180.00	173.50
TECHNOCRAFT IND LTD	88.25	84.25
GLAXOSMITHKLINE CONSUMER	2120.00	2085.00
D B REALTY LIMITED	440.00	429.00

TRADING SETUPS -Candlesticks

We use classic candle patterns which are formed by not a single days move but a combination of 8-10 days  
(Levels Mentioned are Cash market prices)
Bearish Reversal Pattern : A list of stocks which have been rising for the last 4-5 days and the stock has given a bearish reversal for eg. Engulfing Bear, Spinning Top, Long legged Doji etc.. 

(Levels Mentioned are Cash market prices)

Reversal from the Top	Remarks
TATA CONSULTANCY SERV	Look to sell around 975-980
TAINWALA CHEMICAL	Sell ard 27
SPICE MOBILITY LIMITED	Sell ard 106.8
NAHAR INVST & HOLDING LTD	Sell ard 50
CONSO. FIN. HOLD. LTD.	Sell ard 149.5

Bullish Reversal Pattern : A list of stocks which have been falling for the last 4-5 days and the stock has given a bullish reversal for eg. Engulfing Bull, Long legged Doji etc.. 

(Levels Mentioned are Cash market prices)

Reversal from the Top	Remarks
EIH Hotels	Buy with a SL of 196

Our Trades :  http://bit.ly/dwF0SS
You are welcome to post your comments on each trade that i take based on the above newsletter and do not forget to rate me and follow my trades.

Happy Trading .........................

"One machine can do the work of fifty ordinary men. No machine can do the work of one extraordinary man................. Elbert Hubbard

Nifty Analysis 11th Oct to 15th Oct 2010

NIFTY - Followup of Last Week
On expected lines Nifty touched 6200 our target of the parallel channel. So the second remark of last week has met its target now lets wait what Fibonacci does to Nifty. All in All the week moved on expected lines. 

NIFTY - Week ahead

The prediction of weeks when markets get tired is the most difficult. Nifty just had a wonderful rise, NOW WILL IT REST AT CURRENT LEVELS or FALL ??????
Lets not predict Nifty this week, rather lets find trade-able levels or points which can confirm a short term bear move.
The level of 6060 will hold support though in my view i find 5950 a better level where nifty can react to and rest in the zone of 5950 - 6150. On the upper side if Nifty breaches 6225 then only i would go long on Nifty. 

My heart is bullish but my mind is bearish. My heart explains the rest will be over soon and Nifty will take a momentum move towards 6400. My mind says that all indications are bearish then how will the bull move even occur. Let me put the fight between my heart and mind to rest and trade bearish only below 6060 and bullish only above 6225.............. and with this analysis the entire broker community will issue warning against me. This week seems to  be a STAY OUT week, go watch a movie, plan a trip (stay out means no trading no brokerage). The market between 5950 - 6225 will only take money from us. Let me not dishearten all of you..... Scrip level action will still prevail
VERDICT 
If You are a Bull : Breach of 6225 is entry signal for you
If You are a Bear : High risk low profit shorts can be build below 6060 with target of 5950

NIFTY STOCKS TO WATCH

Reliance - We are long in Reliance @ 1020 with revised SL of 1025 and target of 1100. This scrip might pick up steam

ONGC - We are short on ONGC with a revised SL of 1410 for a target of 1335

SBIN - We will revise our SL in SBIN to 3210

TCS - The bullishness is getting over will remain under pressure this week can touch 920. fresh longs above 970 only

Infosys -  Trading in the upper range of the breakout We will revise the SL to 3030 for the long entered at 3065 

NTPC - No clear position again this week also. It is retracing it self, wait for the culmination and then take action

HindLever - similar to NTPC wait for the fall to arrest and then enter again 

INTERESTING DATA (a technical analyst giving fundamental data might seem to be a irony, but friends for me all this data can be plotted as a chart and i am reading the same) 
No major changes witnessed to share in this weeks newsletter

TRADING SETUPS - HVR/NR4-I

This section will cover lists of various technical setups under formations and levels where action can be taken. These are time tested and profitable systems which Technical analysts have been using for the last hundreds of years

Scrip	High	Low
MUNDRA PORT  SEZ LTD	184.5	180.4
OIL COUNTRY TUBULAR LTD	110.9	109
EMPEE DISTI. LTD.	145.6	142.8
GOLDEN TOBACCO LIMITED	101.3	99.6
3M INDIA LIMITED	3929	3900
AJANTA PHARMA LIMITED	244	237.5
SHYAM TELECOM LIMITED	70.2	68.25
TRANS  RECTI. LTD	397.9	390.3
AARTI DRUGS LTD.	142.4	139.3
GATEWAY DISTRIPARKS LTD.	120.75	118.2
GAMMON INDIA LTD	213.85	210.25
GODAWARI POWISP LTD	217.9	213.25
IFB INDUSTRIES LTD	169.75	164
SUTLEJ TEXT INDUS LTD	262.9	257.25
WYETH  LTD.	823.5	810
GRANULES INDIA LIMITED	106.8	103
RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS L	183.85	178.2
ESS DEE ALUM LTD	503	496

Next week onwards I will also cover some intresting candlesticks setups which we can profit from. after reading a book of steve nison, I got to learn candlestick in great details. And best of all we can use candlestick patterns for clearcut trades. This is the link incase u would like to read Beyond Candlesticks: New Japanese Charting Techniques Revealed

Our Trades :  http://bit.ly/dwF0SS
You are welcome to post your comments on each trade that i take based on the above newsletter and do not forget to rate me and follow my trades.

Looking for tips Intraday or Positional calls, from highly rated and a huge group of successful analysts. click here to enjoy a full month of FREE TRIAL, incase you like them the per month cost is as low as Rs 333 per month click here http://bit.ly/doRRRw   

Happy Trading .........................

"When you are in light, everything will follow you. But when you enter dark, even your shadow will not follow you THIS IS LIFE .......... Hitler

Nifty Analysis 4th Oct to 8th Oct 2010

NIFTY - Followup of Last Week
Just when everything was going to favor the Bears.......... from Monday's high to Thursday till 2:30, Last 30 mins move of Nifty on Thursday trapped the Bears. And i am not sure if Fridays trading can be termed as Bear covering. I hope none of my readers were trapped



NIFTY - Week ahead

Nifty Chart Upto 1st Oct 10

This week my eye caught yet again interesting formations in NIFTY.
Firstly fibonacci retracements point a resistance of 6390, There is another resistance of 6357 our earlier high of Aug 2008.
Secondly i marked a parallel rising channel which NIFTY breached at 5600 on 9th Sep 10. This is a 600 points channel thus giving a target of 6400 also. I presume as per my last blog we should safely trade with a bullish mindset till 6350-6400 is reached.  
VERDICT 
If You are a Bull : Play small with an extreme target of 6400. Book small profits and cut losses as you ride the trend.
If You are a Bear : DON'T SHORT THE MARKET until and unless you see the first reversal in candlesticks

NIFTY STOCKS TO WATCH
Reliance - Though i am still bullish in reliance for a target of 1100 but this time i will buy it only above 1020

ONGC - Our short got triggered last week and we will remain short with a SL of 1440

SBIN - Our long trade got triggered and we will remain long with a SL of 3200

TCS - SL hit as per last week analysis, still bullish on TCS can touch 1000 shortly 

Infosys -  Long triggered at 3065 SL for the week will be 3000

NTPC - Our clear winner, do not advise any positions in NTPC for this week, Trend decider 215

HindLever - advice to wait for correction to enter again Trend decider 303

INTERESTING DATA (a technical analyst giving fundamental data might seem to be a irony, but friends for me all this data can be plotted as a chart and i am reading the same) 
NIFTY TRIN - TRIN has turned a bit but needs a bigger fall to retrace to 0.5+ levels
NIFTY PE Ratio - PE ratio is at 25.54 which is reasonably high, we have witnessed a max value of 28 earlier when markets peaked
FII DATA - FII's have been continuously buying since 30th Aug 10, historically it has been witnessed FII's positive flows create a bullish momentum. (watch for continuous negative flows for 3 consecutive days this will mark a short term top)

TRADING SETUPS - HVR/NR4-I

This section will cover lists of various technical setups under formations and levels where action can be taken. These are time tested and profitable systems which Technical analysts have been using for the last hundreds of years

Scrip	High	Low
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP  LT	762.5	746.05
JINDAL POLY FILMS LIMITED	1023.3	996.25
EDUCOMP SOLUTIONS LTD	618.8	609.2
IDEA CELLULAR LIMITED	74.55	73.3
RELIANCE POWER LTD.	162.8	160.35
BOMBAY DYEING & MFG. CO L	638.2	626
NILKAMAL LIMITED	421.9	411.8
CONTAINER CORP OF IND LTD	1313.95	1295
COX & KINGS LIMITED	582.75	572.3
JINDAL PHOTO LIMITED	243.85	238.1
REI AGRO LIMITED	21.25	20.85
JINDAL DRILLING IND. LTD	565	552.85
APOLLO HOSPITALS ENTER. L	457.7	446
NESTLE INDIA LIMITED	3370	3341
KALINDEE RAIL NR. (E) LTD	170.3	167.6
GODAWARI POW & ISP LTD	213.5	209.55
MANG.CHEM.FERT.LTD	35.4	34.5
THERMAX LTD	804.8	793

Our Trades :  http://bit.ly/dwF0SS
You are welcome to post your comments on each trade that i take based on the above newsletter and do not forget to rate me and follow my trades.

Looking for tips Intraday or Positional calls, from highly rated and a huge group of successful analysts. click here to enjoy a full month of FREE TRIAL, incase you like them the per month cost is as low as Rs 333 per month click here http://bit.ly/doRRRw  

Happy Trading .........................

"Life is more strict than a teacher. A teacher teaches a lesson n takes an exam....... But life takes an exam n then teaches a lesson..... :)"