Sunday, September 26, 2010

Nifty Analysis 26th Sep to 1st Oct 2010

NIFTY - Followup of Last Week
Finally Nifty rested this week, though at these levels it will be healthy for NIFTY to consolidate a little more, but these are markets we should not expect but react........


NIFTY - Week ahead

Nifty Chart Upto 24th Sep 10

In-spite of the fact that at this juncture 90% of indicators Technical or Fundamental are pointing towards a downward reaction, Only and only the sentiment analysis is pointing to a rise but in-spite the fight between Technical's and Sentiments we cannot ignore the fact that the trend is so powerful that NIFTY is just not stopping. The high of 6048 should also get violated on Monday with support from the US markets. What should i do ?????, should i buy, should i short. Almost everyone is confused, with every rise conviction levels are coming down. So this week again lets be prudent and trade the direction of the levels being breached which ever side BULL or BEAR.  
VERDICT 
If You are a Bull : Play small with an extreme target of 6400. And at the first signal get out of your positions. Strong resistance will be faced by NIFTY at 6066 & 6128 also.
If You are a Bear : DON'T SHORT THE MARKET at this juncture wait for 5943 to be breached before you act.


NIFTY STOCKS TO WATCH
Reliance - This is the only stock that hasn't witnessed the bull run. We can build long positions with a SL of 990. No Shorts for now
ONGC - Looking bullish for now, heading towards 1570. Shorts can be build only below 1389
SBIN - Fresh longs can be built above 3170. On the lower side a short can be built above 3100
TCS - Longs can be created for a target of 1000 with a stoploss of 925.  
InfosysFresh longs can be built above 3065.
NTPC - Is expected to be the winner of this week, longs are advised at current levels of 209 with a stoploss of 204 for a target of 216
HindLever - A clear winner of this week. We advise you to book profits and wait for a retracement to enter again


INTERESTING DATA (a technical analyst giving fundamental data might seem to be a irony, but friends for me all this data can be plotted as a chart and i am reading the same) 
NIFTY TRIN - TRIN is at the lowest values since Oct 09 suggesting a top nearby

NIFTY PE Ratio - 25.41 was the value on 24th Sep 09, We have witnessed a maximum value of 28. A higher PE denotes market top nearby
FII DATA - FII's have been continuously buying since 30th Aug 10, historically it has been witnessed FII's positive flows create a bullish momentum. (watch for negative flows this will mark a short term top)

TRADING SETUPS
This section will cover lists of various technical setups under formations and levels where action can be taken. These are time tested and profitable systems which Technical analysts have been using for the last hundreds of years

Scrip High Low
INDIAN HUME PIPE CO. LTD. 164 161.6
EDELWEISS CAP LTD 54.35 53.25
S.E. INVESTMENTS LTD 49.7 48.1
BAJAJ AUTO LIMITED 1452 1435
ZENSAR TECHNOLOGIES  LTD 166.65 164.5
UNITED PHOSPHORUS LIMITED 188.45 185.5
PANORAMIC UNIVERSAL LTD 21.65 21.05
RALLIS INDIA LTD 1449 1419
SOFTPRO SYSTEMS LIMITED 200 190.3
LOTUS EYE HOSPITAL LTD. 17.35 16.95
NATIONAL ALUMINIUM CO LTD 406 402.1
ASTRAL POLY TECH LTD 160.9 155.2
VISHAL RETAIL LIMITED 49.8 49.15
ACTION CONST EQUIP LTD 66.7 64.9
RAYMOND LTD 383.75 374.5

Our Tradeshttp://bit.ly/dwF0SS
You are welcome to post your comments on each trade that i take based on the above newsletter and do not forget to rate me and follow my trades.

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Happy Trading .........................

"When flood comes, the fish eat the ants, But when water dries, the ants eat the fish....... Life gives a chance to everyone, just wait for it."

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Nifty Analysis 13th Sep to 17th Sep 2010

Nifty Chart upto 9th Sep 2010
NIFTY - Followup of Last Week
Totally against our expectations, in-spite of a holiday week and resistances round the corner. Everything was defied on day 1 itself. In all good moves and our move to always look at both sides paid handsomely and created profits too.....

NIFTY - Week ahead
The breakout is decisive and bulls are in control. But i would like to bring to your notice about the trading in Nifty and Nifty futures on the 9th Sep. Nifty candle is bullish but Nifty futures candle does not show the same level of confidence. Infact the Nifty futures candle shows traces of bearishness too. This week also lets go and trade both sides rather than to play bets on any one side. On the higher side Nifty will continue to resist as trading patterns in the period of Oct 2007 to Jan 2008 are coming into play. Psychologically these levels are points for weak hearts to exit their positions which they have been holding for 2-3 years. 
Nifty futures will display bullish behavior if it trades above 5650 and confirms a momentum bearish move if it closes below 5595. 
 

VERDICT : In this week of decision lets wait for levels to break and trade in favor of the same   

STOCKS TO WATCH
Reliance - As per last week we are long on the same with a stoploss 950. Short only below 910

SBIN - Watch for a one bad day and check the candle formation on the same day. Incase we witness a dark cloud or a doji. On confirmation punch this stock. To check the exact date follow our trades on moneyvidya.com we will issue a alert on the same

HindLever - We are long in HLL with a stoploss of 269 

TataMotors - Double Top formation in play. Sell below 980 for a target of 910

TRADING SETUPS
This section will cover lists of various technical setups under formations and levels where action can be taken. These are time tested and profitable systems which Technical analysts have been using for the last hundreds of years


HVNR4/ IB Results of Last weeks setups
Scrip High Low Position PL Max PL Close
ATUL LTD 145.00 141.15 Long 6.21 3.62
CANARA BANK 536.80 526.35 Long 6.04 5.24
J & K BANK LTD. 766.00 756.50 Long 8.81 8.14
LIC HOUSING FINANCE LTD 1222.40 1206.35 Short 3.39 2.33
LUPIN LIMITED 369.50 360.00 Long 2.79 1.71
PATNI COMPUTER SYST LTD 457.90 449.10 Short 1.08 0.14
PIPAVAV SHIPYARD LTD 108.50 106.50 Short 1.13 0.85
SPECTACLE INDUSTRIES 152.85 152.00 Long 2.06 0.10
STATE BANK OF INDIA 2789.00 2751.35 Long 7.38 6.99
THE INDIA CEMENTS 107.50 105.90 Long 10.60 3.86
TORRENT PHARMA 543.95 535.00 Short 1.87 1.83
TUBE INVESTMENTS 131.40 127.60 Long 4.72 2.21
TULIP TELECOM LIMITED 173.10 171.00 Long 5.20 2.92
VARUN INDUS. LTD. 174.35 170.15 Long 4.79 3.53
V-GUARD IND LTD. 164.60 161.50 Long 12.30 11.54
VOLTAMP TRANSFORMER 1024.00 1001.10 Both Sides 1.57 -2.87
ZEE ENTERTAINMENT  289.40 285.25 Long 3.06 0.60

Only one of our setups failed this week which got triggered on both sides. On an average of all the above results we made a handsome return of 5% on the peak side and based on the weekly closing of the prices we still made 3%. I hope this instills confidence and next week you start trading on this setups

HVNR4/ IB For the next week
This section will cover lists of various technical setups under formations and levels where action can be taken. These are time tested and profitable systems which Technical analysts have been using for the last hundreds of years

 
Scrip High Low
3I INFOTECH LTD. 61.8 60.95
AARTI DRUGS LTD. 142 139
AFTEK  LIMITED 13.4 13.2
APTECH LIMITED 154.95 152.05
ARIES AGRO LTD. 185 180.5
GENUS POWER INFRASTRU LTD 223.25 220
GEODESIC LIMITED 105.45 104
GODREJ PROPERTIES LTD 778.8 758
HAVELLS INDIA LIMITED 805 793
HSIL LIMITED 140.5 137



MAHINDRA LIFESPACE DEVLTD 470.7 464.15
TRANS & RECTI. LTD 414.5 405
UCO BANK 118.4 116.25
VIJAYA BANK 84.8 83.6
VIP INDUSTRIES LTD 505 491
Our Trades : http://bit.ly/dwF0SS
You are welcome to post your comments on each trade that i take based on the above newsletter and do not forget to rate me and follow my trades.


Happy Trading ...... This weeks thought

What Lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us - William Morrow

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Nifty Analysis 6th Sep to 10 Sep 2010


Nifty Daily Chart upto 3rd Sep 2010
NIFTY - Followup of Last Week

As expected nifty remained bearish in the first half of the week and touched our support level of 5350. Though i must admit the rise was really fast and has trapped many bears.


NIFTY - Week ahead

Inspite of the impressive rise 1st Sep 2010 the trading in the range of 5480 - 5515 is yet not convincing. The market this week is not going to be any mood to break any levels on both sides. With the coming week marred by holidays we will witness a lackluster trading over all. Inspite of our anticipation we should always be prepared unexpected moves. 5350 is a very good support and 5550 a very good resistance. Look to buy nifty in-case it trades above  5550 for a good upmove.

There is another setup that might be reflected after Tuesdays trading. In-case Nifty remains between the levels of 5470 - 5510, expect a momentum move on the violations of any level.


STOCKS TO WATCH


Reliance - Profitable positions can be build on the breakout of 915 - 950 for a target of 35 rupees which ever side it breaks

SBIN - We are short on it at 2765 with a stoploss of 2805 where we will cut our shorts and build longs too

HindLever - Incase NIFTY violates 5500-5550 then this is the stock to buy first. Any move above 275 will take the stock to 290 levels very quickly

TataMotors - Good Consolidation happening at current levels, Trading between 980 - 1040 any violations of these levels will take the scrip one way which ever level it breaks

TRADING SETUPS
This section will cover lists of various technical setups under formations and levels where action can be taken. These are time tested and profitable systems which Technical analysts have been using for the last hundreds of years

HVR-NR4/IB setup 

A system that gurantees highest probability of being profitable. A very simple setup to understand and trade. I invite your feedback on the pros and cons you have witnessed during your observations


Scrip High Low
STATE BANK OF INDIA 2789.00 2751.35
LIC HOUSING FINANCE LTD 1222.40 1206.35
CANARA BANK 536.80 526.35
LUPIN LIMITED 369.50 360.00
J & K BANK LTD. 766.00 756.50
PATNI COMPUTER SYST LTD 457.90 449.10
ZEE ENTERTAINMENT ENT LTD 289.40 285.25
THE INDIA CEMENTS LIMITED 107.50 105.90
SPECTACLE INDUSTRIES LTD 152.85 152.00
PIPAVAV SHIPYARD LTD 108.50 106.50
VOLTAMP TRANSFORMERS LTD 1024.00 1001.10
VARUN INDUS. LTD. 174.35 170.15
TUBE INVESTMENTS OF INDIA 131.40 127.60
ATUL LTD 145.00 141.15
V-GUARD IND LTD. 164.60 161.50
TORRENT PHARMACEUTICALS L 543.95 535.00
TULIP TELECOM LIMITED 173.10 171.00




http://bit.ly/dwF0SS : You are welcome to post your comments on each trade that i take based on the above newsletter and do not forget to rate me and follow my trades.

Happy Trading, Happy Labours Day, Happy ID............ Lets see next week its going to be happy or lackluster. Being a technical analyst we hate lackluster days. I leave you with a thought to ponder on. 

If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles. ---- Sun tzu

Bye, take care and have a profitable trading week 

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